On Monday, October 13, 2025, gold prices jumped across India, with 24‑carat bullion hitting ₹12,540 per gram – a rise of ₹32 from the day before – while 22‑carat fetched ₹11,495 per gram, up ₹30. The surge arrived just days before the festival of DhanterasIndia, traditionally a gold‑buying bonanza that fuels a sizable chunk of the country’s retail jewelry market.

Background: Gold’s Festive Pull in India

Every year, the Hindu calendar marks Dhanteras as the first day of the Diwali shopping spree. Historically, jewellers report up‑to‑30% of their quarterly sales materialising in the week surrounding the festival, as families buy gold for auspiciousness and as a hedge against inflation. The 2025 Dhanteras falls on October 20, aligning with a new moon that amplifies cultural rituals. With GST on jewellery already factored in, any price movement in the days leading up to the event directly impacts buyer sentiment and vendor inventory planning.

Monday's Price Surge Details

Data released by Goodreturns.in at 12:46 PM UTC showed the 24‑carat rate climbing to ₹12,540 per gram, while the 22‑carat rate settled at ₹11,495 per gram. The platform highlighted a day‑over‑day increase of ₹32 for 24‑carat and ₹30 for 22‑carat, echoing similar ticks reported by the Indian Express, which also noted an 18‑carat rise to ₹9,405 per gram (+₹24).

Across the board, FXStreet quoted a broader figure of ₹11,573.69 per gram – a jump of ₹110.44 from Friday’s close of ₹11,463.25. Their breakdown listed a 10‑gram bar at ₹115,739.70, a tola (11.6638 g) at ₹134,993.60, and a troy ounce (31.1035 g) at ₹359,992.90. The discrepancy between FXStreet’s international‑conversion approach and domestic market quotes stems from varying import duties, state‑level taxes, and jeweller margins.

Drivers Behind the Jump

Two main currents fed the rally. First, former U.S. President Donald J. Trump

Second, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicated a 96% probability of a 25‑basis‑point Federal Reserve rate cut in October 2025, with an 87% chance of a similar move in December. Lower U.S. rates typically weaken the dollar, making gold cheaper for non‑U.S. buyers and sharpening demand in rupee‑denominated markets.

FXStreet summed it up: “With geopolitical risk back in play and US dollar buying interest muted, the non‑yielding yellow metal finds fresh support, especially ahead of a major Indian buying season.”

Market Reactions Across Cities

In Delhi, leading jewellers reported queues forming early Monday morning as customers rushed to lock in the current rates before any potential dip. Mumbai’s wholesale market echoed the sentiment, with traders noting a 1.2% rise in spot prices compared to the previous week. Down south, Chennai merchants highlighted a similar pattern, pointing out that the city’s gold‑demand historically spikes 10‑15% in the week before Dhanteras.

Kolkata’s market, often more conservative, still saw a notable uptick of roughly ₹28 per gram for 22‑carat pieces, suggesting the festival’s pull transcends regional buying quirks. Across all four metros, the combined effect of pre‑festival buying and the global risk premium pushed total retail gold turnover estimates for the Dhanteras week to exceed ₹150 billion – a figure that would represent a 7% increase over the same period last year.

What’s Next for Gold Prices?

Analysts warn that the next price catalyst could be the actual release of the Fed’s policy decision in late October. If the anticipated cut materialises, the rupee‑denominated gold market could see further appreciation, especially if the Russian‑Ukrainian front remains unsettled. Conversely, any diplomatic breakthrough that eases war tensions might pull some speculative money out of gold, cooling the rally.

For the average Indian buyer, the practical takeaway is clear: lock‑in purchases before the Dhanteras rush to avoid the typical post‑festival price correction that follows the holiday’s end. Jewellery associations in Delhi and Mumbai have already urged consumers to act swiftly, citing historical trends where prices dip 3‑5% in the two weeks after Diwali.

Frequently Asked Questions

How will the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cut affect Indian gold buyers?

A rate cut usually weakens the US dollar, making gold cheaper in rupee terms. For Indian consumers, this translates into higher spot prices but also a stronger incentive to buy now before any further upside, especially with Dhanteras looming.

Why did former President Donald J. Trump’s remarks move gold prices?

His warning about potential Tomahawk missile deliveries to Ukraine revived concerns over a broader escalation in the Russia‑Ukraine conflict. Heightened geopolitical risk pushes investors toward safe‑haven assets like gold, driving up demand and prices.

What role does Dhanteras play in India’s gold market?

Dhanteras marks the start of the Diwali shopping season and is traditionally a day when families purchase gold for auspiciousness. The festival accounts for roughly 30% of quarterly jewellery sales, making price movements in the week before it especially impactful.

Are the price differences between Goodreturns.in and FXStreet significant?

Yes, the gap reflects methodological differences. Goodreturns.in reports domestic market rates that include import duties, state taxes, and jeweller premiums, while FXStreet converts international spot prices into rupees, yielding a lower figure that may not capture local markup.

What should consumers expect after Dhanteras?

Historically, gold prices tend to soften 10‑14 days after Diwali as the festive buying surge wanes. Buyers who secure gold before the holiday often avoid the modest post‑festival correction, which typically ranges between 3% and 5%.